Aviationtoday.Com: Of Flying Robots

The headline to this column seems like the title of a bad science fiction movie from the 1950s, but it actually describes the new reality of warfare.

Unpiloted drones are the darlings of reformers in the Pentagon who promote net-centric, transformational warfighting capabilities. These futuristic flying machines do the work that humans find too dull, dirty or deadly.

The worldwide fight against terrorism and guerilla warfare is prompting the United States to devote huge amounts of money into its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and airborne surveillance programs, a trend that’s bound to continue even if weapons spending slows next year, as is widely anticipated.

Larry Dickerson, an analyst with Forecast International, reports the market for UAV reconnaissance systems, including airframe, ground control components and electronic payloads, is expected to be worth $13.6 billion through 2014. He made that assertion during Aviation Today’s Webinar, "Rotorcraft’s Winning Streak: How to Leverage The Helicopter Market’s Growth," on April 17. The event has been archived on the Web site and is available for on-demand access.

Although UAVs are increasingly pervasive around the globe, Dickerson said, the United States is by far the largest single market. American-based aerospace companies command a value share of more than 50 percent of the UAV market; he predicted they could grab up to another 10 percent over the next decade. Notably, the value of producing Northrop Grumman’s RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV over the next 10 years could reach $3.5 billion.

Dickerson was joined on the Webinar by Matt Zuccaro, president of Helicopter Association International; Raymond Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst at Forecast International; and Jim McKenna, editor-in-chief of Rotor & Wing magazine.

Another major topic during the Webinar was the innovative avionics technologies emerging in civilian and military helicopters. Speakers addressed how new electronics in the cockpit are changing helicopter missions and flight profiles.

Also discussed was the status of major pending military contracts, with a rundown of the imminent winners and losers.

In the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, military and homeland defense budgets have received large boosts every year. A healthy portion of this funding has gone to rotorcraft, which Pentagon strategists perceive as particularly adept tools for fighting the asymmetrical regional wars of the 21st century. Helicopter operators in all civilian niches also continue to enjoy big demand for their services.

Sure, the helicopter industry’s coffers are full, with order backlogs stretching for months, if not years. But how long can the party last? As the global economy slips into recession, can the helicopter market maintain its growth?

After years of seemingly unstoppable growth, the aviation industry suddenly finds itself in trouble. Tight credit, disappointing corporate profits, spreading job losses and plunging consumer confidence are all conspiring to dissuade people from buying airline tickets. Four airlines recently filed for bankruptcy protection, with more likely to follow suit.

If a downturn is imminent, how can various helicopter industry segments protect themselves? If helicopter growth defies the weakening economy and continues in 2008, as most analysts seem to think, then what’s the best way to leverage this growth for maximum advantage? The Webinar addressed all of these issues, and more.

Meanwhile, the rotorcraft industry as a whole continues to be wracked by realignment, whether through outright mergers and acquisitions, alterations in the structures of existing joint venture agreements or the establishment of various industry teams that take on specific procurement programs.

Despite increasing globalization and its ruthless emphasis on "the bottom line," the aviation sector remains blessed with hard-working executives, pilots, engineers and mechanics who harbor a great passion for rotorcraft and for excellence. Many of them shared and swapped ideas in cyberspace, during our Webinar.